The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for Philippine coffee imports, lowering the estimate by 7.9% to 5.8 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags for the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), which ends in June.
The December forecast for imports is a reduction from the previous estimate of 6.3 million bags in June. It also falls short of the expected 5.85 million bags of coffee imports for the current MY 2023-2024.
According to the USDA, the Philippines is expected to import 5 million bags of soluble coffee in MY 2024-2025, a 9% decrease from the June estimate, but in line with the 5 million bags imported in MY 2023-2024.
The Philippines typically imports most of its coffee, as domestic production cannot meet the country’s demand. Local coffee farms supply about 38% of the market’s needs.
The Philippines ranks as the fourth-largest coffee importer globally, after the European Union (45 million bags), the US (23.9 million bags), and Japan (7.25 million bags).
In terms of production, the USDA maintained its projection for Philippine coffee output at 450,000 60-kg bags for MY 2024-2025, unchanged from MY 2023-2024.
The USDA also lowered its projection for Philippine coffee consumption, forecasting 6.55 million bags for MY 2024-2025, down from 7.05 million bags in the previous estimate.
The USDA’s global coffee production forecast for MY 2024-2025 predicts an increase of 6.9 million bags, bringing the total to 174 million bags. This rise is largely due to higher production in Vietnam and Indonesia.
Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to rebound by 2.6 million bags, reaching 30.1 million in MY 2024-2025. The country’s coffee exports are also set to rise by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million, thanks to an increased supply.
The Philippines imports a significant portion of its coffee from Vietnam.
Globally, coffee consumption is expected to grow to 168.1 million bags, driven by increasing demand in the EU, the US, and China.
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