Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, faces a challenging year as the region battles the most severe drought in nearly a decade. The Central Highlands, a key coffee-growing area, endured extreme heat from March to May, prompting forecasts of a 10-16% decline in coffee output for the upcoming season, according to the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MVX).
Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy head of MVX, highlighted the grim outlook but noted a recent return of rains has sparked optimism among farmers and officials. Despite these improvements, uncertainties loom over whether the weather recovery will significantly boost production and stabilize prices of robusta beans—the variety predominant in espressos and instant coffees, of which Vietnam is the leading global producer.
Amid these challenges, some farmers are implementing innovative strategies to maintain yields. Nguyen Huu Long, cultivating coffee on a 50-hectare plantation in Gia Lai province, expects national output to decline by 10-15% while planning to increase his own production. Long’s approach includes preserving tree longevity and enhancing soil moisture retention by covering it with leaves during heatwaves, contrary to conventional practices of tree replacement for soil enrichment.
Similarly, in other parts of Gia Lai province, farmers like Doan Van Thang are adopting techniques to improve soil absorption of rainwater and fertilizers, crucial for sustaining crop health. Tran Thi Huong, a tenant farmer near Pleiku, Gia Lai’s capital, managed her plantation through increased water usage from local canal reserves, ensuring adequate irrigation during the drought. Despite observing smaller coffee cherries due to adverse weather conditions, Huong remains optimistic about maintaining overall production levels, supported by timely biopesticide interventions against pest infestations aggravated by extreme weather.
Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers a more tempered outlook, estimating Vietnam’s next coffee harvest to remain relatively stable compared to the current season—a forecast less pessimistic than domestic projections.
As Vietnam navigates through these climatic challenges, the global coffee market watches closely, anticipating potential impacts on prices and supply dynamics of one of the world’s favorite beverages.