The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts that coffee exports for 2024 could reach between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.
By the end of last week, the price of coffee in specialized farming regions nationwide was around VND120,500 ($4.7) to VND122,000 ($4.8) per kilogram. The general market trend supports this upward movement due to high transportation costs and concerns about adverse weather conditions, including dry weather and insufficient rainfall in Brazil, which have impacted the harvest.
Currently, coffee prices in the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong are trading at VND120,500 ($4.7) per kilogram, while prices in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, and Gia Lai are at VND122,000 ($4.8) per kilogram.
Data from the General Department of Customs indicate that in the first six months of the year, Vietnam’s coffee exports totaled nearly 900,000 tons, generating approximately $3.04 billion. This represents a decrease of over 8% in volume but an increase of 38% in value compared to the same period last year, when the country also achieved a record high.
By the end of the first eight months of the 2023-2024 crop year, from October 2023 to May 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 1.2 million tons of coffee. This is equivalent to 80% of the ongoing crop’s output and a 7% decrease compared to the same period in the previous crop year.
Currently, drought and pest infestations have significantly impacted productivity, stunting the growth of coffee trees in the country’s main coffee-growing regions. Consequently, the coffee output for the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous year, dropping to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in four years. This decline is exerting pressure on the global supply of Robusta coffee.
As the world’s largest producer of Robusta, Vietnam’s significant supply reduction is expected to drive up global prices for the coffee bean. Vicofa predicts that coffee exports in 2024 could range from $4.5 billion to $5 billion.