Coffee prices are under pressure today, with March arabica coffee (KCH25) down by 4.52%, falling by -18.90 points, and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) down by 1.49%, dropping -86 points.
Arabica coffee has dropped sharply to a two-week low, with a notable rebound in inventories fueling long liquidation pressures in arabica coffee futures. According to Wednesday’s data, ICE-monitored arabica inventories increased by 2.1% to 774,553 bags, recovering from Tuesday’s 9-month low of 758,514 bags. On the other hand, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories hit a 4-3/4 month high on January 31, reaching 4,603 lots, but fell to a 1-3/4 month low of 4,297 lots by Tuesday. Today, robusta inventories are at 4,347 lots.
In a bullish sign for coffee prices, an increased portion of Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest has already been sold, reducing the amount of supply available for sale. As of February 11, 88% of Brazil’s coffee harvest has been sold, according to Safras & Mercado, which is ahead of last year’s pace of 79% and the 5-year average of 82%. In contrast, sales for the 2025/26 crop have been slow, at only 13%, significantly below the 4-year average of 22%. This suggests that producers are holding off on selling new supplies.
Continued concerns over coffee supply have helped sustain prices. Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in January fell by 1.6% year-over-year to 3.98 million bags. Furthermore, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, Conab, projected a 4.4% year-over-year decline in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. Conab also revised down its 2024 crop estimate by 1.1%, lowering it to 54.2 million bags from its September estimate of 54.8 million bags.
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