Coffee prices saw a decline on Monday, with arabica coffee (KCK25) closing down by -4.45 (-1.14%) and robusta coffee (RMH25) falling by -154 (-2.70%).
The drop in prices comes amid ongoing long liquidation pressure, which pushed NY arabica coffee to a new 2-1/2 week low, reversing much of the rally that occurred between late January and early February. Arabica prices have been pressured in recent sessions due to a rise in ICE-monitored inventories, which increased to 792,695 bags on Monday from a nine-month low of 758,514 bags last week.
On the other hand, robusta coffee inventories reached a 4-3/4 month high at 4,603 lots on January 31 but have since dropped to a 1-3/4 month low of 4,297 lots on February 18. On Monday, robusta inventories stood at 4,321 lots.
Despite the overall downward pressure, there are some factors that have supported coffee prices. Below-normal rainfall in Brazil, the world’s largest arabica coffee producer, has provided some bullish support. Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee-growing region, Minas Gerais, received only 11.4 mm of rain last week, just 24% of the historical average.
In addition, a higher percentage of Brazil’s coffee harvest has already been sold compared to previous years, signaling a tightening of supply. Safras & Mercado reported last Monday that 88% of Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest had been sold as of February 11, ahead of last year’s pace of 79% and the 5-year average of 82%. However, sales of the 2025/26 crop have been slower, with only 13% sold, well behind the 4-year average of 22%. This suggests producers are holding back supply, which could support prices in the coming months.
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