Robusta coffee prices have been bolstered by growing concerns over severe droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, which are expected to damage coffee crops and reduce global supply. The Ministry anticipates a 20% decline in Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023–2024 crop year due to these adverse weather conditions.
Despite the reduced output, the recent coffee harvest was notably successful, with increased prices ensuring farmers reaped substantial profits. Experts suggest that the high prices will encourage farmers to invest more in their coffee plantations and consider expanding their cultivation areas.
Coffee continues to cement its status as one of Vietnam’s key export commodities, playing a crucial role in the national economy. The coffee industry contributes over 10% of Vietnam’s agricultural export revenue and 3% of its total GDP, serving as a vital income source for many farmers and a significant element of the country’s economic landscape.
In the previous year, Vietnamese coffee exports reached a record 1.61 million tons, generating $4.18 billion, highlighting the robust growth of this sector. The goal of increasing coffee export value this year is grounded on a strong foundation, though local businesses must devise strategic export plans to maximize existing advantages and sustain long-term success.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasts a favorable outlook for coffee exports in 2024. Despite potential decreases in coffee output available for export, prices are expected to continue rising. This trend could lead to a breakthrough in export turnover, with projections suggesting that coffee exports could achieve between $4.5 billion and $5 billion this year.